China imports of Iranian crude

↓ = risk

kb/d · UANI Tanker Tracker (AIS estimate; UN Comtrade archive pre-2025)

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

44.7 kb/d vs a normal ~1,400 — currently at 3% of normal.

Latest

44.7kb/d

2026-08-31 00:00 UTC

Normal

~1,400kb/d

registry baseline

7D trend

▼ 95%

worsening · 7d

Observed min / max

44.7 – 1,582kb/d

trailing 180 days

Model stress

79/ 100

A move of one model span (700.0 kb/d) below the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Chinese purchases of discounted Iranian crude, estimated monthly from UANI Tanker Tracker AIS monitoring of Iranian export loadings (direct China–Iran customs reporting stopped in 2021). If Beijing keeps buying, Tehran retains its revenue lifeline; a collapse signals severe pressure and raises escalation risk. Pre-2025 history uses the UN Comtrade Malaysia relabelling proxy; UANI export figures are scaled 0.9× to a delivered-imports basis.

Source: UANI Tanker Tracker (AIS estimate; UN Comtrade archive pre-2025).

Model weight: 8% of the composite score.