Oil signal
Buy oil signal:
Market favorable for buyers
Escalation signals active — covering near-term oil exposure now limits repricing risk.
The signal combines the composite escalation score with recent changes in the readings below. Old readings remain visible; the verdict uses current evidence.
- ·Insufficient fresh data or comparison history: conflict coverage.
- ·Hormuz transits -75.0% vs 7d ago
Short term signal readings
latency: minutes (AIS, Brent) to monthly (UANI est.)Update cadence varies by source — from minutes (live AIS crossings, intraday Brent) to monthly estimates. The age under each tile is the honest one.
Brent (intraday)
updated 31m ago· 2026-10-28 23:18 UTC
+0.7% vs 24h ago
Conflict coverage (24h)
staleupdated 21h ago· 2026-10-28 02:04 UTC
Iran seismic max (72h)
updated 1h ago· 2026-10-28 22:28 UTC
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb transits
updated 3d ago· 2026-10-25 00:00 UTC
+12.5% vs 7d ago
US carrier strike groups in theater
updated 2d ago· 2026-10-26 17:13 UTC
0 in ~3w
US amphibious ready groups in theater
updated 2d ago· 2026-10-26 17:13 UTC
0 in ~3w
Military tanker/airlift tempo (24h)
updated 35m ago· 2026-10-28 23:13 UTC
-3.0% vs 7d ago
Iran oil exports (UANI est.)
data as of Aug 2026· periodic source
China tanker imports (AIS)
updated 5d ago· 2026-10-23 00:00 UTC
Hormuz crossings (live AIS, 24h)
updated 5m ago· 2026-10-28 23:43 UTC
-75.0% vs 7d ago
Iran War Escalation Risk
weighted composite scoreA 0-100 Composite Score of the tiles below. Updated live
Score composition
weighted contribution, points- Hormuz vessel transits18%14.3 pts · stress 79
- China imports of Iranian crude8%6.4 pts · stress 79
- Brent crude front month11%5.2 pts · stress 47
- US commercial crude stocks (excl. SPR)8%4.5 pts · stress 57
- US carrier strike groups in theater9%4.5 pts · stress 50
- East-West pipeline outlet (Yanbu loadings)6%4.3 pts · stress 72
- Gulf war-risk insurance premium8%4.0 pts · stress 50
- VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China)6%3.4 pts · stress 56
- Military tanker/airlift tempo (24h)4%2.5 pts · stress 62
- US distillate fuel oil stocks4%2.0 pts · stress 50
- US amphibious ready groups in theater3%1.5 pts · stress 50
- Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb transits10%0.9 pts · stress 9
- Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d)5%0.0 pts · stress 0
Composite 53.6 — bars scaled to the largest contributor; latest reading 2.50 transits/day for Hormuz vessel transits.
Composite Score input tiles:
trailing up to 90 daysHormuz vessel transits
▼ 75% / 7d · worsening→Daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, all vessel types.
updated 35m ago· 2026-10-28 23:13 UTC
3% of normalnormal ~78.0 transits/day
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb transits
▲ 13% / 7d · improving→Daily commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, all vessel types.
updated 3d ago· 2026-10-25 00:00 UTC
97% of normalnormal ~37.0 transits/day
East-West pipeline outlet (Yanbu loadings)
0% / 7d · flat→Crude tanker loadings at Yanbu (King Fahd Port) — the Red Sea outlet of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (Petroline, ~5M bpd capacity), the main crude bypass around Hormuz.
updated 5d ago· 2026-10-23 00:00 UTC
0% of normalnormal ~960.0 kb/d
China imports of Iranian crude
▼ 95% / 7d · worsening→Chinese purchases of discounted Iranian crude, estimated monthly from UANI Tanker Tracker AIS monitoring of Iranian export loadings (direct China–Iran customs reporting stopped in 2021).
data as of Aug 2026· monthly source, publication lags ~1 month
3% of normalnormal ~1,400 kb/d
source lags — all available history shown
US commercial crude stocks (excl. SPR)
▼ 0% / 7d · flat→US commercial crude inventories.
updated 5d ago· 2026-10-23 00:00 UTC
91% of normalnormal ~450.0 mbbl
US distillate fuel oil stocks
▼ 1% / 7d · flat→US distillate (diesel/heating oil) inventories.
updated 5d ago· 2026-10-23 00:00 UTC
87% of normalnormal ~118.0 mbbl
Brent crude front month
▼ 2% / 7d · flat→Brent front-month price.
updated 19h ago· 2026-10-28 04:00 UTC
+42% vs normalnormal ~78.0 USD/bbl
VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China)
▲ 13% / 7d · worsening→Very Large Crude Carrier earnings on the Middle East Gulf to China route, from the CME-listed TD3C Baltic freight future (front month, Worldscale converted to USD/day).
updated 4h ago· 2026-10-28 19:13 UTC
+79% vs normalnormal ~45,000 USD/day
Gulf war-risk insurance premium
▼ 48% / 7d · improving→Additional war-risk premium charged for transiting the Gulf, as % of hull value.
updated 19h ago· 2026-10-28 04:45 UTC
20.8× normalnormal ~0.25 % hull value
Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d)
▼ 60% / 7d · improving→Trailing 7-day count of English-language conflict-related articles about the Gulf / Hormuz / Red Sea (GDELT timelinevolraw).
updated 47m ago· 2026-10-28 23:01 UTC
-51% vs normalnormal ~1,500 articles
US carrier strike groups in theater
0% / 7d · flat→US aircraft carriers (CVN hulls) operating in Iran-relevant waters — Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman/Aden, Persian Gulf, Mediterranean — as positioned in the weekly USNI Fleet & Marine Tracker.
updated 2d ago· 2026-10-26 17:13 UTC
+100% vs normalnormal ~1.00 CSGs
US amphibious ready groups in theater
0% / 7d · flat→Big-deck amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD hulls — each the flagship of an Amphibious Ready Group embarking a ~2,200-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit) in the same Iran-relevant waters, from the weekly USNI Fleet & Marine Tracker.
updated 2d ago· 2026-10-26 17:13 UTC
Infinity× normalnormal ~0.00 ARGs
Military tanker/airlift tempo (24h)
▼ 3% / 7d · improving→Unique military tanker and strategic-airlift aircraft (KC-135/KC-46/KC-10, C-17, C-5) tracked over the trailing 24h via the adsb.lol open ADS-B feed, sampled on each ingest tick.
updated 35m ago· 2026-10-28 23:13 UTC
+165% vs normalnormal ~60.0 aircraft/24h