Score composition
weighted contribution, points- Hormuz tanker transits22%24.4 pts · stress 100
- Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb transits12%13.3 pts · stress 100
- Brent crude front month14%5.7 pts · stress 37
- Gulf war-risk insurance premium10%5.5 pts · stress 50
- US commercial crude stocks (excl. SPR)10%4.8 pts · stress 43
- Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d)8%3.7 pts · stress 42
- US distillate fuel oil stocks6%2.6 pts · stress 39
- VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China)8%2.2 pts · stress 25
- China imports of Iranian crude10%stale — excluded
Composite 62.4 — bars scaled to the largest contributor; latest reading 6.00 transits/day for Hormuz tanker transits.
Indicators
latest reading · trailing 90 daysHormuz tanker transits
0% / 7d · flat→6.00transits/day
as of 2026-09-06 · 7d ago
6% of normalnormal ~100.0 transits/day
stress↓ = risk100
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb transits
▼ 21% / 7d · worsening→23.0transits/day
as of 2026-09-06 · 7d ago
42% of normalnormal ~55.0 transits/day
stress↓ = risk100
China imports of Iranian crude
▼ 4% / 7d · worsening→1,543kb/d
as of 2024-12-01 · 651d agostale — excluded from score
110% of normalnormal ~1,400 kb/d
source lags — all available history shown
stress↓ = riskstale
US commercial crude stocks (excl. SPR)
▼ 0% / 7d · flat→424.1mbbl
as of 2026-09-04 · 9d ago
94% of normalnormal ~450.0 mbbl
stress↓ = risk43
US distillate fuel oil stocks
▲ 2% / 7d · flat→106.3mbbl
as of 2026-09-04 · 9d ago
90% of normalnormal ~118.0 mbbl
stress↓ = risk39
Brent crude front month
▲ 9% / 7d · worsening→104.6USD/bbl
as of 2026-09-11 · 2d ago
+34% vs normalnormal ~78.0 USD/bbl
stress↑ = risk37
VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China)
0% / 7d · flat→58,727USD/day
as of 2026-09-13 · 3h ago
+31% vs normalnormal ~45,000 USD/day
stress↑ = risk25
Gulf war-risk insurance premium
▲ 88% / 7d · worsening→5.12% hull value
as of 2026-09-12 · 18h ago
20.5× normalnormal ~0.25 % hull value
stress↑ = risk50
Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d)
▲ 40% / 7d · worsening→4,218articles
as of 2026-09-13 · 10m ago
+181% vs normalnormal ~1,500 articles
stress↑ = risk42