HORMUZ SIGNAL

Watch the strait, not the statements. A composite 0–100 gauge of Iran-conflict escalation risk built from shipping, energy, and conflict data.

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Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d)

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articles · GDELT

Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d) at 4,218 articles, 181% above the 1,500 normal.

Latest

4,218articles

2026-09-13 13:10 UTC

Normal

~1,500articles

registry baseline

7D trend

▲ 40%

worsening · 7d

Observed min / max

1,895 – 8,916articles

trailing 180 days

Model stress

42/ 100

Full stress (100) at ≈ 8,000 articles — baseline plus the model span; readings at or below 1,500 register zero stress.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Trailing 7-day count of English-language conflict-related articles about the Gulf / Hormuz / Red Sea (GDELT timelinevolraw). A media-tempo proxy for conflict intensity, not an event count — used because it reacts within hours. Recalibrated Sep 2026 to the measured range (~1.9k calm-week floor, ~8.9k peak, Aug 2026); the original 25/55 calibration pinned the indicator at maximum stress permanently.

Source: GDELT.

Model weight: 8% of the composite score.