HORMUZ SIGNAL

Watch the strait, not the statements. A composite 0–100 gauge of Iran-conflict escalation risk built from shipping, energy, and conflict data.

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US distillate fuel oil stocks

↓ = risk

mbbl · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

106.3 mbbl vs a normal ~118.0 — currently at 90% of normal.

Latest

106.3mbbl

2026-09-04 00:00 UTC

Normal

~118.0mbbl

registry baseline

7D trend

▲ 2%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

100.8 – 119.9mbbl

trailing 180 days

Model stress

39/ 100

Full stress (100) at ≈ 88.0 mbbl or lower — baseline minus the model span; 0 is the floor for counts.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

US distillate (diesel/heating oil) inventories. Refined-product tightness amplifies any crude disruption.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Model weight: 6% of the composite score.