HORMUZ SIGNALescalation risk monitor

A live gauge of Iran-conflict risk for oil markets — built from shipping, insurance, and energy data, not headlines.

Watch the strait, not the statements

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VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China)

↑ = risk

USD/day · CME TD3C Baltic freight future (NYMEX:TL via TradingView scanner)

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China) at 80,548 USD/day, 79% above the 45,000 normal.

Latest

80,548USD/day

2026-10-28 19:13 UTC

Normal

~45,000USD/day

registry baseline

7D trend

▲ 13%

worsening · 7d

Observed min / max

17,630 – 120,448USD/day

trailing 180 days

Model stress

56/ 100

A move of one model span (55,000 USD/day) above the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Very Large Crude Carrier earnings on the Middle East Gulf to China route, from the CME-listed TD3C Baltic freight future (front month, Worldscale converted to USD/day). Spiking rates reflect scarcity of willing tonnage and rising risk.

Source: CME TD3C Baltic freight future (NYMEX:TL via TradingView scanner).

Model weight: 6% of the composite score.