HORMUZ SIGNAL

Watch the strait, not the statements. A composite 0–100 gauge of Iran-conflict escalation risk built from shipping, energy, and conflict data.

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VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China)

↑ = risk

USD/day · CME TD3C Baltic freight future (NYMEX:TL via TradingView scanner)

VLCC rate TD3C (MEG to China) at 58,727 USD/day, 31% above the 45,000 normal.

Latest

58,727USD/day

2026-09-13 09:45 UTC

Normal

~45,000USD/day

registry baseline

7D trend

0%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

10,676 – 64,516USD/day

trailing 180 days

Model stress

25/ 100

Full stress (100) at ≈ 100,000 USD/day — baseline plus the model span; readings at or below 45,000 register zero stress.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Very Large Crude Carrier earnings on the Middle East Gulf to China route, from the CME-listed TD3C Baltic freight future (front month, Worldscale converted to USD/day). Spiking rates reflect scarcity of willing tonnage and rising risk.

Source: CME TD3C Baltic freight future (NYMEX:TL via TradingView scanner).

Model weight: 8% of the composite score.